The Fed raised rates for the third time this year, signaling it was on track for further hikes over the next few months. Rates moved higher across the fixed income spectrum, with the 10-year Treasury bond piercing the 3% mark, a level last reached in May of this year. The Federal Reserve also revised its estimates for GDP growth from 2.8% to 3.1% for 2018, with an eventual slowing to1.8% by 2021.
Trade and tariffs continued at the forefront of discussions among the U.S. and international trading partners. Topics at hand included the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the World Trade Organization (WTO), and protecting U.S. intellectual property rights internationally.
Trade concerns affecting equities were overshadowed by rising corporate earnings and improving economic data. U.S. equities ended with gains across all size companies, small to large caps. Small caps have advanced the most year to date, yet large caps outperformed in July. Optimistically, all sectors posted gains in July, with industrials leading. As a reversal from the second quarter, value stocks outperformed growth stocks in July, signaling a rotation to less growth orientated companies.
Trade and tariffs disrupted markets in June as the U.S. Commerce Department announced tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports. The 25% tariffs will be imposed on 1,300 items encompassing a variety of products including aluminum, iron, gas turbines, snow blowers, milking machines, and dental drills.
Renewed fears of tariff influenced trade disputes and uncertainty with the euro was buffered by an unemployment rate decline to 3.8% and a rising dollar driven by optimism surrounding the U.S. economy.
Markets continued on a volatile course in April following announcements regarding tariffs, rising rates, and geopolitical tensions, yet some economists and analysts expect that a tax cut driven rebound is possible.
